Jake的总结 - I learned the hard way

Jake Wujastyk 在12月3日的推文总结的很到位，一针见血的指出了买期权的危险性。过去的几个月里我试图拷贝他的动作，结果基本都失败，为什么？因为刚好遇到市场的极大波动期，就连资深交易员都没能从技术分析里发现，用Jake的话说：

October 10th until last week was a pretty brutal ride in the market and some gains were given back for the year. 

I also wasn't expecting many names to drop 50% in 4-5 weeks, that was not something many people saw coming.

市场大环境是技术分析的基石，环境变差，什么分析都会错误。

我的教训就是：

- 买了短期的看涨期权： JD, BULL

- 买了基本面差的股票: UP

- 没有及时止损： 这个是最大的问题，如果我在买期权或股票之前就定好了止损位，那么我也不会血亏到如此。

我已经取消了Jake的推特订阅，我不认可他的操作风格以及选股逻辑。我不怀疑他自己是赚了很多钱，他的技术分析水平确实很高，但是他不及时止损的操作是很危险的。也许因为他对自己技术分析的水平非常自信，所以即便是股价跌了一半也找出各种即将回升的迹象。

Overall market thoughts:

The market has finally started turning and risk-on action has returned. We are likely seeing some large short-positions start to cover after weeks of downward pressure (these could have even just been hedges instead of directional bets by large institutions). When shorts start to cover positions, especially after being short for so long, you can see some pretty violent upside moves as they buy to close their positions (generally market orders to just close as fast as possible) and this phenomenon can be the start of "next legs up" in the market. You could almost see this starting, especially in $OKLO, over the last week or so. As QT (quantitative tightening) is now officially done as of December 1st, you can almost feel the "beach ball" coming up from under the water. October 10th until last week was a pretty brutal ride in the market and some gains were given back for the year. HOWEVER, if you didn't go too heavy in options and you had a huge profit cushion from great trading from January-September, you should still be sitting extremely pretty YTD (anything over 30% is a massive YTD % return), especially after some nice recent short-term wins over the last two weeks. Even though I didn't trade this recent speed bump as well as I would have liked, I also wasn't expecting many names to drop 50% in 4-5 weeks, that was not something many people saw coming. However, I am still EXTREMELY happy with how I have traded this year, even with the road bumps over the last 7 weeks and some unfortunate losses I had to take to net/net my realized profits/losses so I wasn't stuck with a massive tax liability at the end of the year. Selling covered calls on positions helped the bleeding on shares positions that went south and not being too heavy in options (No, $JD / $BULL options positions were not big options positions for me relative to my portfolio size and I mentioned that quite a few times) also helped greatly. I saw SO many people go heavy in options, go on leverage, and pretty much do everything I mentioned to stay away from during this time and ended up losing all their profits and some even their entire accounts. I really try to give pointers like that without giving financial advice, but unfortunately some have to learn the hard way. I have been there/done that, which is why I try to mention these things from experiences I have had in the past so others don't make the same mistakes but that is easier side then done. One thing that is crucial to understand here is to NOT revenge trade into the end of the year. Keep a level head, trade the stocks you know and understand, and DON'T go heavy in options or use leverage irresponsibly!!! Buying options are a small part of my trading relative to trading shares and I sell covered calls just as much or more than I buy long calls. On the flip side of what I just said, keep your confidence and don't let a few trades over the last 6-8 weeks mentally affect your trading moving forward that make you an emotional trader. This is when you get back on the saddle, learn from your mistakes, end the year strong, and get ready for a great 2026!! A big thank you to many of you for your support and kindness over the last several weeks, even with a lot of noise/negativity from those that didn't take responsibility for their trades and own decisions and needed anyone to blame but themselves. Sincerely, Jake