简单粗暴的option trading大纲 - 只适用于长期上涨的蓝筹股

昨天看了Matt Giannino的视频Learn My Entire RSI System in Under 15 Minutes

说的是用Weekly RSI作为交易的信号：

1️⃣ RSI 70+: “STOP. WAIT.”

• Market is overbought

• Pullbacks from here can be brutal

• Most people chase and get trapped

• Do not buy

• If you need trades: rotate to stocks with RSI around 30–40

His point:

“We are the most excited when it’s the worst time to enter.”

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2️⃣ RSI ~60: SAFE Cash-Secured Puts (OTM)

This is his first actual entry point.

• Market cooled a bit

• Trend still strong

• Probability still high

He sells:

• 30 DTE OTM puts

• Aiming for 5% return

• 80% probability of profit

• Uses leveraged tickers like TSLL to boost returns

He calls this a “churn and burn CSP.”

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3️⃣ RSI ~50: More Aggressive CSPs (ATM)

• Market discount improves → get more aggressive

• Instead of OTM puts, he sells ATM puts

Why?

• Higher return: 10% per month (his target)

• Chance of profit: ~66%

Logic:

“The better the discount, the bigger the swing you should take.”

You still have a 10% buffer before losing money.

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4️⃣ RSI ~40: BUY STOCK

This is where he switches strategies entirely.

He stops selling puts and starts buying stock, especially leveraged ETFs.

Examples he gives:

• TSLL (3x Tesla) — went from $6 → $18

• FNGU — bought exactly at the April market bottom

Why buy stock here?
Because RSI 40 is:

• Deep discount

• Early reversal zone

• Best risk-to-reward for multi-month rallies

He says students made 100–200% in these trades.

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5️⃣ RSI ~30: BUY LEAPS (GO BIG)

This is the most aggressive level and extremely rare.

In the last 10 years, major markets hit RSI 30 only three times.

Whenever it happens:

• Trend is extremely oversold

• Sentiment is terrible

• Headlines are scary

• Retail panics

• But rebounds are massive

He tells students to:

• Buy long-dated LEAP call options

• Hold through the recovery

• Expect multiple-hundred-percent moves

Examples:

• “During the April dip, LEAPs returned thousands of percent.”

This is his highest-risk, highest-reward trade.

这个策略的好处就是简单，去除了情绪化和对市场走向的猜测。

但是，一个大大的但是，对股票的选择要求很高，必须是处于长期上涨阶段的基本面扎实的股票。不然傻傻的在RSI 50的时候卖ATM PUT, 然后眼看着股票跌下去，很显然不是个好策略。

这个博主也是卖课的，所以他说的也不能太当真，就学习一下吧，去粗取精。

几个选股标准：

• the stock is in a confirmed long-term uptrend： 长期上涨

• macro market is bullish： 牛市

• volatility is moderate： 波动性比较温和

• pullbacks are shallow： 回撤较浅

• dips get bought quickly： 下跌之后很快又被买涨

• RSI rebounds reliably：找到规律，比如某个股票在RSI跌到40左右总是回弹

适用的股票和ETF:

• MAG7
• QQQ / SPY
• Leveraged megacap ETFs

还有一点，RSI也不是盲目跟随60,50,40, etc. 每个标的有自己的风格，要摸透风格就要集中观察2，3个，不要大面积撒网反而只能捞小鱼。

接下来我打算认真跟踪NVDL和TSLL, 找合适的时机卖PUT。